Sunday, October 19, 2008

Sunday with the Senators – We’re Almost There

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Today will be my last Sunday with the Senators column until after the election.

And yes, after the election will come a recap of WHY some of the campaigns worked and others didn’t. And then, it will be time to start framing the 2010 races. Updates on individual races will show up as separate posts, but I need these last two weekends to canvass.

So here goes.

I put up a set of polls for you to respond to for the contentious Senate races, and here are the results, so far: (all numbers rounded, links for the candidates are in the original post.)

Virginia: Warner 100%, Glimore 0%
New Mexico: Udall 100%, Pearce 0%
New Jersey: Lautenberg 97%, Zimmer 3%
Colorado: Udall 98%, Shaffer 2%
New Hampshire: Shaheen 95%, Sununu 5%
Alaska: Begich 86%, Stevens 14%
North Carolina: Hagan 86%, Dole 12%, Cole 2%
Oregon: Merkley 85%, Smith 15%, Brownlow 0%
Minnesota: Franken 65%, Coleman 34%, Barkley 1%
Mississippi (2): Musgrove 42%, Wicker 58%
Georgia: Martin 30%, Chambliss 70%
Kentucky: Lunsford 29%, McConnell 71%
Maine: Allen 28%, Collins 72%

Here’s what the latest state polls show: (all data from Pollster)

Virginia: Warner 58%, Glimore 32%
New Mexico: Udall 56%, Pearce 40%
New Jersey: Lautenberg 51%, Zimmer 37%
Colorado: Udall 47%, Shaffer 40%
New Hampshire: Shaheen 48%, Sununu 42%
Alaska: Begich 48%, Stevens 47%
North Carolina: Hagan 47%, Dole 41%, Cole 5%
Oregon: Merkley 46%, Smith 41%
Minnesota: Franken 40%, Coleman 38%, Barkley 18%
Mississippi (2): Musgrove 46%, Wicker 47%
Georgia: Martin 45.8%, Chambliss 45.3%
Kentucky: Lunsford 43%, McConnell 48%
Maine: Allen 40%, Collins 54%

DCW reader projections on the individual races jibe with the last overall number of Senate seats in 2009 poll, where 29% of you thought we’d win 58 seats. Want to change your assessment?

And before you do, consider this, the latest Texas poll average shows “Big John” Cornyn at 50%, and Rick Noriega at 44%.