WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Senate Forecast: 57.8 (+6.8), another big jump of 0.4 from the previous forecast. The first 4: VA, NM, CO, NH are over, and we could end up with 55 to 62 seats depending on how things break. And ME hasn't been polled in two weeks, so who knows if the blue wave is hitting there - and TX is now in single digits. We've finally added TX to the chart (and removed NJ).
The Fix is out today with their Senate rankings. For the first time, the 10 most likely seats to switch are all Republican. The Fix rankings are in () after the party designation.
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.
The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup).
Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), NJ (Lautenberg), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller).
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi).
| DemConWatch Senate Forecast | ||||||||||
| State | Current | EV .com | Open Left | 538 .com | CQ | Roth | Crystal Ball | Cook | SSP | .... |
| Date | 10/16. | 10/17. | 10/14. | 10/17. | 10/15. | 10/16. | 10/13. | 10/13. | ||
| Dem-Strong | 15 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | ||
| Dem-Lean | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Tossup | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Rep-Lean | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Rep-Strong | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | ||
| Dem '08 Projection | 19.5 | 19.2 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 18.9 | 18.5 | 18.3 | 18.0 | ||
| Dem '10/'12 Seats | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | ||
| Dem Senate Projection | 58.5 | 58.2 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 57.9 | 57.5 | 57.3 | 57.0 | ||
| Dem-Gain | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | ||
| VA (Open) | R (1) | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | 52 |
| NM (Open) | R (2) | D | D | D | D | D | D | DL | D | 53 |
| LA (Landrieu) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| CO (Open) | R (3) | D | D | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | 54 |
| NH (Sununu) | R (4) | DL | DL | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | 55 |
| AK (Stevens) | R (8) | T | T | T | DL | DL | DL | DL | T | 56 |
| NC (Dole) | R (6) | T | T | DL | T | DL | T | T | T | 57 |
| OR (Smith) | R (5) | T | T | DL | T | DL | T | T | T | 58 |
| MN (Coleman) | R (7) | T | DL | T | T | T | T | T | T | 59 |
| GA (Chambliss) | R | T | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | T | RL | 60 |
| MS (Wicker) | R (10) | T | RL | RL | T | RL | RL | T | RL | 61 |
| KY (McConnell) | R (9) | T | RL | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | 62 |
| ME (Collins) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | RL | RL | R | 63 |
| TX (Cornyn) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | R | R | R | 64 |
Here are the seats that span 3 categories: CO, KY, NH.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.
del.icio.us
