Monday, October 06, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 10/6 - Movin' on up

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

As expected, Obama takes a big jump, and now leads 313-225, his highest number ever in the history of the forecasts. With NH going back to Lean-Obama, Obama now has 264 EVs in Lean or Strong states, and needs NV to tie or any of the tossup states to win. FL, our current tipping point state, has three projections showing it as Lean-Obama or better.

(Tuesday AM update: CNN moves NC to Tossup, WI and NH to Obama-Lean., and MI to Obama-Strong. These changes are not shown in the chart. This would move CNN to approximately 308, and the overall number to about 314).

Map changes: Towards Obama: WA: OL->O; NH: T->OL; MT: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, NH, NC, PA, VA, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVsOpen Left538
.com
EV.
com
RMRCPElect. Proj.NBCCNNFHQEVs
Date

10/6.10/6.10/6.10/6.10/6.10/6.10/6.10/1.10/6.
Obama-Strong (O)

249286207217192193157160168
Obama-Lean (OL)

9552578372711079054
Tossup (T)

31371116411110010099138
McCain-Lean (ML)

5663112043146426
McCain-Strong (M)

158157100163143131160125152
Obama Total

344338264300264264264250222
McCain Total

163163163174163174174189178
Obama Est.

342340311319311304
303
296
291


California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO150
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO153
Iowa
7OOOOOOOLOLOL160
Maine
4OOOLOOOLOOLO164
Oregon
7OOOOLOOOLOOL171
Washington
11OOOOOLOOLOLO182
New Jersey
15OOOOOLOOLOLOL197
Minnesota
10OOOOOLOLOLOLOL207
Michigan
17OOOLOOLOLOLOLT224
Pennsylvania
21OOOLOLOOLOLOLT245
New Mexico
5OLOOLOLOLOLOLOLOL250
NH
4OOOOLOLOLOLTT254
Wisconsin
10OLOOLOLOLOLOLTOL264
Florida
27OLOLTOLTTTTT291
Colorado
9TOTOLTTTTT300
Virginia
13OLOTTTTTTT313
Nevada
5OLOLTTTTTTT318
Ohio
20OLOLTTTTTTT338
Missouri
11TTTTTTMLTT349
N. Carolina
15OLTTTTTTMLML364
Indiana
11TTTMLTMLTMLT375
W. Virginia
5MLMMLMMLMLMMLML
Montana
3MMLMLMMMMLMLML
Georgia
15MMMLMMLMLMMLM
Arkansas
6MMMMMMLMMLM
Mississippi
6MMMLMMMLMMM
N. Dakota
3MMLMMMMMMML
Louisiana
9MMMMMMMMLM
Texas
34MMMLMMMMMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Alaska
3MMMMMMMMM
Arizona
10MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Dakota
3MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


Open Left538
.com
EV.
com
RMRCPElect. Proj.NBCCNNFHQ....
























































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: IA, ME, NJ, OR, WA (Obama), AR, GA, LA, MS, ND, TX (McCain), with no effect on the overall count.